A fundamental requirement of competitive and efficient electricity markets is access to reliable data and performance metrics.
This Electricity Market Information website (EMI) is the Electricity Authority's avenue for publishing data, market performance metrics, and analytical tools to facilitate effective decision-making within the New Zealand electricity industry.
November inflows returned national storage to above-average historical levels. Northward flow across the HVDC has increased. Contributing to the increase in national storage, Taupo has increased to above-average levels during the last month after lingering at below-average levels since September 2018. Each update to the 2020 ERCs is presented in a public dashboard on EMI. The official curves and more information on security of supply forecasting are available on the system operator's website.
The chart below indicates the physical wholesale position of the generators in percentage terms, along with the wholesale price. A measure above zero represents a long position on generation while a measure below zero represents a short position on generation. The trends do not reflect the impact of any hedging or forward market positions held by participants. The curves are a product of both the time-varying injection and offtake that the participant is responsible for in the market. Please read the report notes for more details.
The volume of off-market trades as a proportion of the total volume of New Zealand electricity futures traded on ASX has been increasing over time. This can be seen in the size of the orange and light blue bars, i.e. the exchange for physical and block trades, in the report of monthly trade volumes since 1 January 2016. Note 8 of the trade volumes report provides additional information about these trade types.
The traded price of a futures contract provides insight into the market's expectation of the spot price for the contract period. A quarterly futures contract begins to trade more than three years before the contract period begins and remains able to be traded right up until the contract period ends, and the contract expires (monthly contracts become available about six months before the contract period). Settlement occurs several days after the expiration date. During the contract period, the price at which the contract trades (orange line) will take into account the information already known about the spot price to-date (blue line) and the market’s expectation of the spot price for the remainder of the contract period. This new report derives the implied spot price for the remainder of the contract period from the bid-ask spread (blue area) and trade (the red line) within the contract period. The example for Otahuhu, Q2 2017, below shows a situation where the market is expecting the spot price to rise during the contract period. Click through to see the implied spot price for the other contracts currently trading (or see the public dashboard).
This report presents information on the distribution of final prices for a selected period of time. The report facilitates comparisons between regions (or nodes), and for any given region (or regions), it allows comparisons across the same time period. For example, Upper North Island prices in August over the last 10 years . Users can also select a 'difference node' to report on the distribution of the difference in the price between the selected node and the selected difference node. The figure below shows daily price distributions for network regions over the last three days. Any outliers are easily identified. Remember to check out the "All dashboard instances" button on the top right of any report to see what instances users have added to their dashboards.
October 2018 was a period of low inflows and reduced thermal fuel availability that resulted in sustained high prices. Several participants joined forces to lodge an Undesirable Trading Situation (UTS) claim in relation to the circumstances and information available to market participants at this time. Taupo inflows have been low since late September 2018, (74 per cent of average from 1 Oct 2018 to 15 Jan 2019) contributing to national controlled storage remaining below average. As 2019 gets underway, prices continue to remain stronger than in recent years.