Historical electricity risk curves

Report notes

1. The system operator is responsible for publishing the electricity risk curves (ERCs) as part of its security of supply forecasting function. The set of ERC’s established in 1 Aug 2019 are available under the show parameter and include, risk status boundaries, percentage risk curves (these have been established the longest), contingent storage release boundaries, and official conservation campaign triggers. These various curves are produced for New Zealand and the South Island. Please see https://www.transpower.co.nz/system-operator/security-supply-and-ercs for current ERCs and further information. The system operator inherited the responsibility for forecasting security of supply from the Electricity Commission, the Electricity Authority’s predecessor, in November 2010.

2. The Authority monitors the market response to shortage. This report tracks the history of the risk of shortage in the New Zealand electricity system, as reported by the system operator.

3. Hydro data (storage and/or inflows) is sourced from NZX hydro (data provided by NIWA) and is not available for download. Please see https://energy.nzx.com for more information. In this report controlled storage in the North Island includes Lake Taupo, and in the South Island, Lakes Tekapo, Pukaki, Hawea, and Te Anau and Manapouri.

4. The framework for monitoring security of supply has evolved through time, particularly with regard to the treatment of contingent storage and the volume of available contingent storage. These changes are marked with vertical grey lines. The current set of curves have included available contingent storage from 1 August 2019. On 27 Feb 2020, following Meridian’s announcement that it could fully utilise the consented contingent storage in Lake Pukaki, storage increased by a further 367 GWh. To accurately represent the new regime and changes to available contingent storage, step changes in storage, mean storage, and maximum storage were added. The mean storage represented in the report is no longer the mean of the historical data presented in this report, but an adjusted mean to reflect the change from this point forward (i.e. without changing what was presented in the past). Prior to the 1 Aug 2019 contingent storage was excluded from the framework. A change was made on 29 August 2018 to bring the treatment of Tekapo contingent storage into line with the excluded treatment of other contingent storage as detailed in the SoSFIP. This change removed 220 GWh of Tekapo contingent storage from controlled storage over summer (denoted as 1 October – 31 March).

5. The set of electricity risk curves are updated periodically including when there is a material change to the inputs. These updates are marked with a black triangle in the figure and have occurred for the following reasons:

   • 30 Oct 2017: Updated generation outages for the next two months, new minimum flows for Waitaki, Emarket model update.
   • 30 Nov 2017: Updated generation outages for the next two months.
   • 22 Dec 2017: Updated generation outages for the next two months, new demand forecast, temporary de-rating of Ohaaki generation.
   • 31 Jan 2018: Updated generation outages for the next two months
   • 28 Feb 2018: Updated to include latest demand forecast data, adjustments to generator capacity assumptions and generation profiles, updated frequency keeping and instantaneous reserves assumptions, and major generator outages and de-ratings.
   • 22 Mar 2018: Updated generation outages for the next two months
   • 27 Apr 2018: Updated generation outages for the next two months
   • 04 May 2018: Updated demand forecast data to include increased Tiwai load, and updated generation outages for the next two months.
   • 13 Jun 2018: Updated generation outages for the next two months.
   • 20 Jul 2018: Updated generation outages for the next two months, extended Ohaaki de-rating until 31 Dec 2018, adjusted Junction Road and Te Ahi O Maui commissioning dates
   • 29 Aug 2018: Updated generation outages for the next two months, and excluded Tekapo contingent storage from 1 October to 31 March.
   • 25 Sep 2018: Updated generation outages for the next two months and Te Ahi O Maui commissioning date
   • 12 Oct 2018: Updated generation outages for the next two months
   • 06 Nov 2018: Updated generation outages for the next eight months that cannot be deferred in an emergency situation.
   • 15 Nov 2018: Updated generation outages for the next eight months that cannot be deferred in an emergency situation and updated HVDC outages
   • 11 Dec 2018: Updated generation outages for the next eight months that cannot be deferred in an emergency situation and updated generator capacities.
   • 31 Jan 2019: Updated generation outages for the next two months
   • 22 Feb 2019: Updated generation outages for the next two months and updated HVDC outages and updated demand forecast and included thermal generation derating due to gas constraints
   • 29 Mar 2019: Updated generation outages for the next two months and included thermal generation derating due to gas constraints
   • 30 Apr 2019: Updated generation outages for the next eight months and included 2020 HVDC outages and included the new Turitea wind farm and updated Whakamaru capacity and Ohaaki de-rating extended to June 2019 and added 2017 inflow sequence.
   • 21 May 2019: Updated generation outages for the next eight months, included 31.5MW of new Ngawha B generation from August 2020, updated Te Apiti capacity factors
   • 25 Jun 2019: Updated generation outages for the next eight months, updated Junction Road commissioning date to 1 March 2020, updated Turitea commissioning date to 19 October 2020, removed historic business rule which made NZ HRCs equal SI HRCs if SI HRCs were larger
   • 24 Jul 2019: Updated generation outages for the next eight months. Ohaaki capacity has returned to 40MW. Te Apiti capacity factor has returned to 0.342.
   • 01 Aug 2019: Incorporated new Security of Supply Information and Forecasting Policy. Updated generation outages for the next eight months.
   • 30 Sep 2019: Updated generation outages for the next eight months.