Historical electricity risk curves
From www.emi.ea.govt.nz provided by the Electricity Authority (New Zealand)
Run at: 20241109070315
Parameters
Date range,01 Jul 2018 - 31 Dec 2019
Effective date,24 Jul 2019
Region,New Zealand
Show,Percentage risk curves
Risk date,DateOfPublication,Risk curves,Series,Value (GWh)
20/07/2018,20/07/2018,ERC revisions,ERC revised,Updated generation outages for the next two months extended Ohaaki de-rating until 31 Dec 2018 adjusted Junction Road and Te Ahi O Maui commissioning dates
01/08/2018,20/07/2018,Percentage risk curves,1% risk,956.9
01/08/2018,20/07/2018,Percentage risk curves,2% risk,844.7
01/08/2018,20/07/2018,Percentage risk curves,4% risk,732.6
01/08/2018,20/07/2018,Percentage risk curves,6% risk,667.0
01/08/2018,20/07/2018,Percentage risk curves,8% risk,620.5
01/08/2018,20/07/2018,Percentage risk curves,10% risk,584.4
29/08/2018,29/08/2018,ERC revisions,ERC revised,Updated generation outages for the next two months and excluded Tekapo contingent storage from 1 October to 31 March.
01/09/2018,29/08/2018,Percentage risk curves,1% risk,771.3
01/09/2018,29/08/2018,Percentage risk curves,2% risk,693.9
01/09/2018,29/08/2018,Percentage risk curves,4% risk,616.5
01/09/2018,29/08/2018,Percentage risk curves,6% risk,571.2
01/09/2018,29/08/2018,Percentage risk curves,8% risk,539.1
01/09/2018,29/08/2018,Percentage risk curves,10% risk,514.2
25/09/2018,25/09/2018,ERC revisions,ERC revised,Updated generation outages for the next two months and Te Ahi O Maui commissioning date
01/10/2018,25/09/2018,Percentage risk curves,1% risk,455.1
01/10/2018,25/09/2018,Percentage risk curves,2% risk,356.4
01/10/2018,25/09/2018,Percentage risk curves,4% risk,257.6
01/10/2018,25/09/2018,Percentage risk curves,6% risk,199.9
01/10/2018,25/09/2018,Percentage risk curves,8% risk,158.9
01/10/2018,25/09/2018,Percentage risk curves,10% risk,127.1
12/10/2018,12/10/2018,ERC revisions,ERC revised,Updated generation outages for the next two months
01/11/2018,12/10/2018,Percentage risk curves,1% risk,310.7
01/11/2018,12/10/2018,Percentage risk curves,2% risk,261.4
01/11/2018,12/10/2018,Percentage risk curves,4% risk,212.0
01/11/2018,12/10/2018,Percentage risk curves,6% risk,183.2
01/11/2018,12/10/2018,Percentage risk curves,8% risk,162.7
01/11/2018,12/10/2018,Percentage risk curves,10% risk,146.8
06/11/2018,06/11/2018,ERC revisions,ERC revised,Updated generation outages for the next eight months that cannot be deferred in an emergency situation.
15/11/2018,15/11/2018,ERC revisions,ERC revised,Updated generation outages for the next eight months that cannot be deferred in an emergency situation and updated HVDC outages
01/12/2018,15/11/2018,Percentage risk curves,1% risk,494.6
01/12/2018,15/11/2018,Percentage risk curves,2% risk,386.1
01/12/2018,15/11/2018,Percentage risk curves,4% risk,277.7
01/12/2018,15/11/2018,Percentage risk curves,6% risk,214.2
01/12/2018,15/11/2018,Percentage risk curves,8% risk,169.2
01/12/2018,15/11/2018,Percentage risk curves,10% risk,134.2
11/12/2018,11/12/2018,ERC revisions,ERC revised,Updated generation outages for the next eight months that cannot be deferred in an emergency situation and updated generator capacities.
01/01/2019,11/12/2018,Percentage risk curves,1% risk,1494.8
01/01/2019,11/12/2018,Percentage risk curves,2% risk,1157.6
01/01/2019,11/12/2018,Percentage risk curves,4% risk,820.4
01/01/2019,11/12/2018,Percentage risk curves,6% risk,623.2
01/01/2019,11/12/2018,Percentage risk curves,8% risk,483.2
01/01/2019,11/12/2018,Percentage risk curves,10% risk,374.7
31/01/2019,31/01/2019,ERC revisions,ERC revised,Updated generation outages for the next two months
01/02/2019,31/01/2019,Percentage risk curves,1% risk,1796.0
01/02/2019,31/01/2019,Percentage risk curves,2% risk,1463.1
01/02/2019,31/01/2019,Percentage risk curves,4% risk,1130.1
01/02/2019,31/01/2019,Percentage risk curves,6% risk,935.3
01/02/2019,31/01/2019,Percentage risk curves,8% risk,797.1
01/02/2019,31/01/2019,Percentage risk curves,10% risk,689.9
22/02/2019,22/02/2019,ERC revisions,ERC revised,Updated generation outages for the next two months and updated HVDC outages and updated demand forecast and included thermal generation derating due to gas constraints
01/03/2019,22/02/2019,Percentage risk curves,1% risk,1873.0
01/03/2019,22/02/2019,Percentage risk curves,2% risk,1502.6
01/03/2019,22/02/2019,Percentage risk curves,4% risk,1132.1
01/03/2019,22/02/2019,Percentage risk curves,6% risk,915.4
01/03/2019,22/02/2019,Percentage risk curves,8% risk,761.7
01/03/2019,22/02/2019,Percentage risk curves,10% risk,642.4
29/03/2019,29/03/2019,ERC revisions,ERC revised,Updated generation outages for the next two months and included thermal generation derating due to gas constraints
01/04/2019,29/03/2019,Percentage risk curves,1% risk,2109.2
01/04/2019,29/03/2019,Percentage risk curves,2% risk,1744.8
01/04/2019,29/03/2019,Percentage risk curves,4% risk,1380.4
01/04/2019,29/03/2019,Percentage risk curves,6% risk,1167.3
01/04/2019,29/03/2019,Percentage risk curves,8% risk,1016.0
01/04/2019,29/03/2019,Percentage risk curves,10% risk,898.7
30/04/2019,30/04/2019,ERC revisions,ERC revised,Updated generation outages for the next eight months and included 2020 HVDC outages and included the new Turitea wind farm and updated Whakamaru capacity and Ohaaki de-rating extended to June 2019 and added 2017 inflow sequence.
01/05/2019,30/04/2019,Percentage risk curves,1% risk,2162.5
01/05/2019,30/04/2019,Percentage risk curves,2% risk,1809.6
01/05/2019,30/04/2019,Percentage risk curves,4% risk,1456.7
01/05/2019,30/04/2019,Percentage risk curves,6% risk,1250.3
01/05/2019,30/04/2019,Percentage risk curves,8% risk,1103.9
01/05/2019,30/04/2019,Percentage risk curves,10% risk,990.3
21/05/2019,21/05/2019,ERC revisions,ERC revised,Updated generation outages for the next eight months included 31.5MW of new Ngawha B generation from August 2020 updated Te Apiti capacity factors
01/06/2019,21/05/2019,Percentage risk curves,1% risk,2422.5
01/06/2019,21/05/2019,Percentage risk curves,2% risk,2033.0
01/06/2019,21/05/2019,Percentage risk curves,4% risk,1643.5
01/06/2019,21/05/2019,Percentage risk curves,6% risk,1415.6
01/06/2019,21/05/2019,Percentage risk curves,8% risk,1254.0
01/06/2019,21/05/2019,Percentage risk curves,10% risk,1128.6
25/06/2019,25/06/2019,ERC revisions,ERC revised,Updated generation outages for the next eight months updated Junction Road commissioning date to 1 March 2020 updated Turitea commissioning date to 19 October 2020 removed historic business rule which made NZ HRCs equal SI HRCs if SI HRCs were larger
01/07/2019,25/06/2019,Percentage risk curves,1% risk,2184.0
01/07/2019,25/06/2019,Percentage risk curves,2% risk,1891.2
01/07/2019,25/06/2019,Percentage risk curves,4% risk,1598.5
01/07/2019,25/06/2019,Percentage risk curves,6% risk,1427.2
01/07/2019,25/06/2019,Percentage risk curves,8% risk,1305.7
01/07/2019,25/06/2019,Percentage risk curves,10% risk,1211.5
24/07/2019,24/07/2019,ERC revisions,ERC revised,Updated generation outages for the next eight months. Ohaaki capacity has returned to 40MW. Te Apiti capacity factor has returned to 0.342.
01/08/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,1% risk,1462.7
01/08/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,2% risk,1293.6
01/08/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,4% risk,1124.5
01/08/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,6% risk,1025.6
01/08/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,8% risk,955.4
01/08/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,10% risk,900.9
01/09/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,1% risk,831.0
01/09/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,2% risk,748.8
01/09/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,4% risk,666.5
01/09/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,6% risk,618.4
01/09/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,8% risk,584.3
01/09/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,10% risk,557.8
01/10/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,1% risk,245.1
01/10/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,2% risk,196.3
01/10/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,4% risk,147.6
01/10/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,6% risk,119.1
01/10/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,8% risk,98.9
01/10/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,10% risk,83.2
01/11/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,1% risk,157.3
01/11/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,2% risk,113.3
01/11/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,4% risk,69.3
01/11/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,6% risk,43.6
01/11/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,8% risk,25.3
01/11/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,10% risk,11.1
01/12/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,1% risk,141.6
01/12/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,2% risk,116.2
01/12/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,4% risk,90.7
01/12/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,6% risk,75.8
01/12/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,8% risk,65.2
01/12/2019,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,10% risk,57.0
01/01/2020,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,1% risk,168.0
01/01/2020,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,2% risk,118.2
01/01/2020,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,4% risk,68.4
01/01/2020,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,6% risk,39.2
01/01/2020,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,8% risk,18.6
01/01/2020,24/07/2019,Percentage risk curves,10% risk,2.5